Will the election polls be wrong again?

Are we in for yet another shock result in tomorrow’s election?

I feel that we may be in for another surprise result and the polls may be proved wrong yet again. We have seen the predicted Conservative landslide eroded in each successive poll and Jeremy Corbyn, a man previously thought as ‘unelectable’ by many of his own party steadily decreasing the gap.

Could it be that once again the political elite have seriously misread the mood of the nation? The Tory campaign has been based on Brexit and vague promises to make life better for the ‘JAMs’ or Just About Managing families but there are far too many people who are Not Managing At All in the UK. Of course, these people could be expected to vote Labour but there seems to be an increasing feeling among the Managing Oks that cuts have gone too far.

After all, this last group are still affected by NHS cuts, have elderly relatives in need of care, children facing a mountain of debt to get through university and mothers who suddenly faced with working much longer until they can retire and can no longer provide free childcare for the grandchildren. On top of this, many of this group seem to have a feeling of unease about the levels of poverty in what is, after all, the fifth richest country in the world, and yet where one in eight working people are said to be living in poverty.

Despite Labour’s radical shift to the Left, I have noticed the number of people I have spoken to and read on social media who have said they will be voting Labour for the first time in their lives.I can’t help wondering how many more previously Tory voters will secretly tick the Labour box tomorrow. Could we be in for another scenario where a candidate who started out as a laughing stock actually takes the prize?

If so, the Tories will only have themselves to blame. Had they actually wanted to hand the job of Brexit to Labour, rather than be held responsible if it doesn’t produce a happy outcome, they couldn’t have done a better job. Their campaign has centred almost solely on May’s ability to produce a better outcome on Brexit than Corbyn which is not even true as he would not be personally involved. Keir Starmer (whom they never mention) will be leading negotiations and could hardly be described as an idiot.Labour’s other stumbling blocks have been John McDonnell, who seems to have disappeared without a trace during the election run-up, and Diane Abbott who has just conveniently temporarily ‘stepped down’ due to ill health – another migraine?

Fear tactics only work when people are happy with the status quo which applies to very few in the UK and as nobody can predict how Brexit will pan out and who would get the best result so it is likely not going to be the ‘be-all’ factor the Tories have relied on. Many of those who voted for Brexit did so mainly because of immigration.As the Tories haven’t been able to make any firm promises on reducing immigration, they may well feel they won’t change this whoever they vote for. Those that voted Remain may feel Labour will go for a softer Brexit.

Whilst we may not fully believe in Labour’s ‘magic money tree’ any more than we believe that forking out £2.50 for a ticket will win us the lottery, when times are hard we are not averse to a gamble and are happy to try anything to change our luck.

Could we be in for another shock result?