Opinion: How close is World War III?

With growing tensions between the US and North Korea the words Nuclear War and World War III are being thrown around a lot, but just how close are we?

It’s hard to have missed the recent news regarding the diplomatic crisis between the United States and North Korea, especially with the air of concern that seems to be flowing through it all. The real question is, is it a real possibility or is it just inflammatory gossip?

First, we need to look at what led us here in the first place, which is also one of the biggest potential problems. North Korea’s Kim Jong Un has, by design or happenstance, personified the “Madman theory” of leadership. The Madman theory claims that by appearing volatile and irrational then foreign powers are less likely to provoke you as they don’t know how you will react. He has on numerous occasions boasted about the military might of North Korea and fought verbally against sanctions levelled against North Korea.

There is one very major drawback to this style. Since his election last year, Donald Trump has also been seen as this style of leader. As with Kim Yong Un only those closest to the World Leaders know if this is a carefully crafted front or symbolic of a truly volatile leader. It does, however, mean that the world is now at a point with two “Madmen” ruling countries that are now at odds with each other.

Over the past week, the insults and boasts have been flowing from both sides, and are continuing to escalate, to the point that both North Korea and the US have claimed that they will retaliate against any attack. Trump has ordered bombers to fly across the Korean Peninsular, while North Korea has claimed it has plans to ‘attack’ US held Guam.

At this point it is still just a War of Words, but as the words escalate it becomes harder for either side to back down. Both men want to show how strong and aggressive they can be, which makes it unlikely that either of them are going to back down without external pressure, but on a similar note, neither of them want to make the first move.

From Donald Trump’s perspective, following his big defeat on Healthcare and still no sign of Mexico paying for his infamous wall, he needs a win, and becoming the man who dealt with the Korean Problem would certainly count as a win. At this point, however, there is no way to “win” without also taking heavy losses. A preemptive strike against North Korea could go one of two ways. Either Trump goes big and is able to instantly destroy North Korea in a barrage of short range nuclear weapons – which would cause a lot of civilian casualties, and look negative on Trump’s America – or mean a long fight – which would almost definitely lead to the loss of American lives and potentially cause a lot of damage to South Korea and other nearby countries.

Likewise, from the perspective of Kim Jong Un, a fight against the US is one that he is very unlikely to win and he has to know that. Any preemptive strike against the US will lead to a huge amount of retaliation and even if sometime Korean allies, China and Russia, become involved, the chances of North Korea being left in one piece at the end are incredibly unlikely.

So, both men know that they cannot come out of this unscratched, which at least will stay their hand for a while, but both men have made it clear that they will retaliate to any offensive action taken against them. With the constant taunts and aggressive language from both leaders, there is every chance that a single misstep could quite easily be taken as an offensive action which could rapidly escalate.

On the positive side, there are calming influences at play as well. Several White House representatives, including US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, have said that they don’t believe this will escalate, with Tillerson claiming that Americans can “sleep well at night.”

Unfortunately, it is the two leaders who will have the final say. If they decide to escalate matters only a mutiny from their respective generals would prevent it. It all boils down to one simple question. To what degree is the bluff and bravado from Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un just an act, and how much are they truly “Madmen”? Only those closest to the two leaders will be able to answer that question, but, perhaps, Donald Trump himself put it best back in 2013.

Be prepared, there is a small chance that our horrendous leadership could unknowingly lead us into World War III.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 31, 2013