ISIS in the Philippines: the hydra grows another head

Over the past month, Philippine government forces have battled with ISIS-affiliated fighters on the southern island of Mindanao, for control of the Muslim dominated city Marawi.

The conflict between the many headed hydra of ISIS around the world and the forces that oppose it (both within and outside of the Middle East) has raged since the organization became active in 2013. The group has major followings in a growing number of countries including Syria, Iraq, Tunisia, and Yemen. It is no surprise when fighting occurs in those nations, as it has consistently since the birth of the Islamic State. But the latest country to see an outgrowth of the terror group, the Philippines, is likely to shock most.

The Southeast Asian nation has Catholic roots originating from Spanish colonization in the 16th century. While the country does have a fairly significant Muslim populace (around 6% of the 100 million person population), one would not expect it to be a recruiting hotbed for the Islamic State.

Over the past month, Philippine government forces have battled with ISIS affiliated fighters on the southern island of Mindanao, for control of the Muslim dominated city, Marawi. With initial reports from the latest conflict suggests the number of dead already to be in the hundreds, it is clearly not an insignificant uprising.

The micro-organization carrying out the attacks are known as the Maute group and have existed since 2012. They were founded by Abdullah and Omar Maute, brothers who were petty criminals at the time. They did not pledge their allegiance to ISIS until 2015 however. The strength of the link between the Filipino group and the Islamic State’s leadership is unclear, but the Philippine government has acknowledged there is at least a rudimentary relationship between the two.

The ongoing conflict began on May 23 when at least 500 Maute members entered Marawi with the intention of taking control over the city. Ultimately, the group hopes to turn the entire province the city is located in, Lanao del Sur, into an ISIS controlled region. It is worth mentioning that the total population of the province is just over 2 million, similar to that of the ISIS stronghold, Raqaa. Annexing the province would clearly be a significant achievement for the Maute group.

The response from the Filipino military was effective enough to avoid disaster. Mass reinforcements from the military were called in on May 24 and the vast majority of the 200,000 Marawi inhabitants were evacuated. American strategic assistance has also been valuable in ensuring that the group was unable to seize full control of Marawi at any point in time, at least to date.

Most major new outlets have reported that based on the current situation it is very unlikely that the Maute group will succeed in taking the city. Still, the terrorist incursion raises a number of worrying questions. Is the Islamic State attempting to expand into Southeast Asia? Are there other unknown regions that the terror group already has links in?

But as always with these incursions, the main worry is that the increased attention on the Maute group will lead to more recruits and donations from those who sympathize with their cause. Hopefully, the Filipino government will effectively eradicate the organization’s leadership during their current conflict. As has been evidenced in countries like Iraq and Syria, this is easier said than done. The hydra always seems to grow another head.