Is the GA06 special election a referendum of President Trump?

The country and top political officials on both sides of the aisle remain on edge as the Georgia 6th is set for its run-off special election. Experts say that this is a “referendum on President Trump”. But can we really determine the nation’s outlook on President Trump from 690,000 individuals in the Atlanta suburbs?

On Tuesday, the voters of the 6th congressional district in Georgia will decide between the young and promising Democrat, Jon Ossoff, and the former Secretary of State of Georgia, Karen Handel, to represent them in the seat vacated by newly-appointed Secretary of Health and Human Services, Tom Price. Some pundits are calling this most expensive congressional election in history a “referendum on President Trump” as they predict the outcome of the election will reveal the nation’s true judgement of Trump’s presidency.

To be blunt, it will not.

This special election will not reveal the nation’s true judgement of Trump’s presidency.

Here’s why.

This is a Congressional Election

Much like voters in a presidential election do not pay much attention to the vice presidential candidate when stepping into the voting booth in November, voters in Congressional elections rarely pay much attention to the President when considering their own representative from their own district. Why? Because in that voting booth, at that moment, voters are considering the candidate that can do best for the district, instead of the nation. Essentially, there are different types of decision-making processes used by voters in congressional and presidential elections. This separates voters’ opinions of a president and a congressional candidate and is key to understanding why this special election will yield little to no substance as to the nation’s judgement of President Trump.

In a Historically Red District

Former Speaker Newt Gingrich represented this district for 11 terms. Tom Price had won the district by a nearly 30-point margin in each of his terms. The district had been 70-30 in favor or Republican presidential candidates in the early part of 2000s and had only recently became more of a 60-40 Republican district. It is obvious this district has been a lock for Republican in recent history.

But in the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump only won the district by a point over Hillary Clinton. This indicates a growing Democratic presence in the district. Note that this in only within the congressional district and not an indication of any national opinion at all. The district may be turning more and more purple, but that does not indicate that the nation is turning against President Trump. It is really just congressional politics, an art unparalleled to presidential politics.

And Would Be Only a Small Victory for Democrats

Jim Thompson and Rob Quist. What do they have in common besides being Democrats? They both have undergone the crushing feeling that is an election loss. Both were defeated in their 2017 special elections and both were thought to potentially win during a time where President Trump and Republicans had the nation on edge. Thompson’s loss in the Kansas 4th and Quist’s loss in Montana’s district proved to be low blows to Democratic hopes.

Democrats are trying to resurrect that hope and instill it into the Georgia 6th with Jon Ossoff.

Certainly gaining another seat in the House will be a plus for the Democrats, but the Republicans will still have a majority. Certainly winning this election in a historically red district will give hope to Democrats in this district in the future, but Republicans still won Kansas, Montana, and are likely to win South Carolina’s 5th. An Ossoff victory would only be a small victory for the Democrats, in terms of Congress and the present. He is definitely a rising star within the Democratic Party and having run in the most expensive congressional election in history, he surely has some deep-pocketed friends that can help him later on for a senatorial or presidential campaign. For now, an Ossoff victory will only be a pat on the back to the DCCC and an indication that the Georgia 6th is now a toss-up district.

After Tuesday, the Georgia 6th will have a new representative. For Ossoff, it could be the beginning of a great national political career and a small victory for the Democrats as they look towards 2018 to retake the House. For Handel, it could be the continuing of an already impressive career in the public sector and a reassurance to the Republicans that the Georgia 6^th still has its back. However, what is certain is that this special election and its outcome will neither confirm nor deny the nation’s judgement of President Trump.

My Prediction: Ossoff +4.5