GENERAL ELECTION. Theresa May, in a free fall in polls, ahead of national election

British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party has seen its lead over the opposition Labour Party narrow to 14 points from 20 points a week ago, polling firm ICM said on Monday ahead of a national election on June 8.

Support for the Conservatives fell by one point to 47 percent while Labour increased five points to 33 percent, according to the poll commissioned by the Guardian newspaper.

Two opinion polls published in recent days – after the political parties published their manifestos of election pledges – showed the Conservatives’ lead over Labour halving to nine points.

Earlier on Monday, May softened a controversial pre-election proposal when she said she wanted to introduce a cap on the amount of money that elderly people would need to spend on social care.

“After the delivery of the party manifestos, polling over the weekend has indicated a resurgent, if still rather distant Labour Party,” ICM director Martin Boon said.

The poll showed support for the Liberal Democrats fell one point to 9 percent, while the UK Independence Party fell two points to 4 percent.

ICM interviewed 2,004 adults online between May 19 and 21.

UK Conservatives’ lead, halved ahead of election – Survation poll

Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservatives’ lead over the opposition Labour Party halved to 9 percent in a Survation telephone poll published on Monday, adding to signs that the election race is tightening ahead of the June 8 vote.

The poll put the Conservatives on 43 percent, down 5 percentage points from a May 15 poll, with Labour at 34 percent, a reported rise of 5 points due to rounding. The research was conducted on May 19 and 20 after the release of the Conservative and Labour manifestos.

Although May’s centre-right party remains well in front of their leftist rivals, several recent polls showing a narrowing gap suggest that expectations of a landslide victory for the Conservativesmay need to be lowered.

Senior Conservative ministers on Sunday defended proposals to reduce state support offered to elderly voters despite concerns that it could undermine support among ageing, wealthy homeowners – a core source of Conservative votes.

The poll showed that respondents were more likely to say that Labour, rather than the Conservatives, had the best policies for older people and pensioners, as well as young people and the state-funded healthcare service. The Conservatives were seen as stronger on the economy and Brexit.

May called the snap election to increase the 17-seat working majority she had in parliament and secure a public mandate for her negotiating strategy as Britain prepares to begin talks on leaving the European Union.

At the time the election was called, poll leads in excess of 20 percent had suggested she could deliver the largest Conservative victory since Margaret Thatcher won a 144-seat majority in 1983.

Monday’s Survation poll showed the Liberal Democrats and the UK Independence Party (UKIP) were unchanged at 8 percent and 4 percent respectively.

No time for Brexit delays, says May as poll lead slips

British Prime Minister Theresa May will on Monday urge voters to back her to deliver the country’s exit from the European Union, playing one of her strongest cards in the election campaign as opinion polls show that her party’s large lead has shrunk.

A series of polls ahead of Britain’s June 8 election have shown the Conservatives’ lead over Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party has fallen to between 9 and 13 percentage points, well down on leads of 20 points or more before May called the snap election.

After launching her manifesto last week, including unexpected plans to reduce financial support for elderly voters, May returned to her core message, saying that Corbyn was not committed to or capable of securing a successful Brexit.

“The deal we seek will be negotiated by me or Jeremy Corbyn. There will be no time to waste and no time for a new government to find its way,” May will say, according to extracts of a speech that will highlight that divorce talks with the EU could begin 11 days after the election.

EU officials are preparing for Brexit talks to begin on June 19 but expect confirmation of the date only after the British vote.

Although both May and Corbyn campaigned last year to remain in the EU, polls show that May is more trusted to secure a good deal in talks with Brussels and that some voters are confused about Labour’s position on the issue.

Last week Corbyn promised to tear up May’s Brexit strategy prioritising control over immigration by promising to leave the European single market. He pledged instead to focus on protecting jobs, preserving living standards and retaining access to the single market.

However, Corbyn has been criticised by some Labour voters for not opposing May’s EU exit strategy strongly enough and by others for not embracing Brexit more enthusiastically.

“We need someone representing Britain who is 100 percent committed to the cause,” May will say. “Not someone who is uncertain or unsure, but someone utterly determined to deliver the democratic will of the British people.”

U-turn on social care after poll lead halves

British Prime Minister Theresa May made a public climbdown on Monday over plans to force elderly people to pay more for their social care, after her governing Conservative Party’s opinion poll lead halved in the run-up to a national election.

In her biggest misstep of the campaign to date, May set out plans last week to transfer a greater share of the cost of care for the elderly from taxpayers to recipients who can afford to fund it themselves.

That raised concerns some might see their houses sold off after their deaths to pay for care received, rather than passed on to their descendants. May’s opponents dubbed it a “dementia tax”, saying it will particularly hit those who need long-term care at home.

“We will make sure nobody has to sell their family home to pay for care. We will make sure there’s an absolute limit on what people need to pay … so you will always have something to pass on to your family,” May said on Monday.

She said opponents and the media had misrepresented the policy proposal which she called part of an important attempt to change the care system in an ageing society.

But May appeared flustered as she faced questions from journalists about her announcement of a cap.

“Nothing has changed, nothing has changed, we are offering a long-term solution for the sustainability of social care for the future,” she said, shaking her head and raising her voice as it was described as a u-turn by journalists. “Nothing has changed.”

When May called a snap election for June 8, surveys indicated she would win a landslide comparable with Margaret Thatcher’s 1983 majority of 144 seats in the 650-seat parliament.

That picture changed after both the Conservatives and the main opposition Labour Party set out their election pitches to voters last week, with a Survation poll published on Monday showed May’s lead over Labour had halved to 9 percentage points.

It followed surveys over the weekend suggesting the gap had narrowed.

Trust the polls?

May had sought to poach traditional Labour supporters with a mix of pledges more radical than those of her predecessor, David Cameron.

A YouGov poll on Saturday found 40 percent of the public were opposed to the change to elderly care provision while 35 percent were supportive. It also showed 49 percent opposed May’s plan to tighten the criteria for raising the state pension each year, compared to 30 percent who supported it.

May called the election to strengthen her hand in negotiations on Britain’s departure from the European Union and win more time to deal with the impact of the divorce. But if she gains less than an impressive majority, her electoral gamble will have failed.

With polls showing the Conservatives’ lead over Labour down from 20 points or more earlier in the campaign, May is projected to win a smaller majority of around 40 seats.

But many are sceptical of the headline poll numbers after surveys failed to correctly predict Britain’s last national election in 2015, as well as the 2016 EU referendum and Donald Trump’s U.S. election victory.

Pollsters have said their 2015 findings significantly overestimated support for Labour. While they have since adjusted their methodology to seek to address this, it will not be known until June 9 whether they have now gone too far the other way.

Survation said in a blog alongside its data that respondents “were more likely to say that Labour, rather than the Conservatives, had the best policies for young people, families with young children, managing the National Health Service, improving the education system and older people and pensioners.”

Britain’s pound edged lower after the polls showed May’s lead had fallen, trading down 0.2 percent against the dollar and flirting with a fall back below $1.30.