A new study could help efforts to save our rainforests

New research has shown how a modelling system could be used to warn which regions of forest are most at risk from deforestation, and aid efforts to protect these precious areas of land.

The study was carried out by researchers from the University of Oxford, Montana and from the US Forest Service, and is published in the journal Landscape Ecology.

Deforestation is one of the biggest threats currently facing our environment, with areas roughly the size of England cut down every year in agriculture and logging operations. The loss of these regions has devastating effects on our planet; for around 80% of Earth’s animals and plants, forests are their home, and many aren’t able to survive the loss of their habitat. It doesn’t end there – forests can help reduce global by acting as carbon ‘sinks’, absorbing much of the carbon dioxide from the air. This benefit vanishes as more and more forest is cut down, allowing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to rise.

For the study, the team examined rainforests in the three nations which form the island of Borneo: Kalimantan Indonesia, Malaysian Borneo and Brunei. Borneo’s forests are home to a staggering number of species, including the Sumatran rhino, Sundra clouded leopard and the pygmy elephant. However, these forests are also at huge risk, with 30% lost from the island since the 1970s.

They combined maps of the areas with a modelling system known as ‘Random Forest’, which has often been used in processes such as soil and biomass mapping, but rarely to analyse forest loss. With the data produced, the research team were able to construct a model of deforestation over a span of 10 years, from 2000 – 2010. They were then able to assess the factors linked to the loss of forest across the island’s three nations.

The data showed that the factors associated with deforestation varied quite widely between the nations. In Kalimantan Indonesia, loss of forest appeared to be driven by low elevation and the closer proximity of previous sites of deforestation. In Malaysian Borneo, the most susceptible areas seemed to be those with a large amount of existing plantations within 30 km and of the lowland mosaic landscape type. On the other hand, deforestation in Brunei was linked with patchy landscapes with multiple land uses in a 10 km radius.

It’s expected that, unless action is taken, these patterns of forest loss will carry on until at least 2020, with the rainforests of Malaysian Borneo continuing to possess one of the highest rates of deforestation in the world.

The Sundra clouded leopard is at risk from Borneo’s deforestation. Source: Mongabay.com

However, although the data in this study concentrated on Borneo, it could still be applied to forests on a global scale, helping conservationists to analyse areas most at risk and take action to protect them.

“Borneo’s majestic forests and glorious wildlife are beacons to the world,” said Professor David Macdonald, one of the authors of the paper and director of Oxford’s Wildlife Conservation Research Unit (WildCRU). “What’s so exciting about this study is that the intelligence gained from studying patterns in Borneo sheds a light to illuminate a way of helping tropical forests around the world. The innovation lies in a methodology that can be rolled out far beyond Borneo.”

Another author of the study and researcher at WildCRU, Dr. Ewan Macdonald, said of the work: “Our results provide the best insight to date where the highest risks lie to Borneo’s remaining forests. I hope this will help governments and conservation planners to develop effective strategies to combat these risks and to conserve these beautiful forests for future generations.

If we understand where risks lurk, we can plan action to counteract them. And these risks are real and imminent for many species, such as the beautiful and enigmatic Sundra clouded leopard, which are threatened by Borneo’s forest loss. I hope our understanding of the patterns of deforestation will provide a vital tool in developing effective conservation strategies.”