Who will be the next generation of tennis champions?

Murray and Djokovic reach their thirties but a new generation has yet to rise! Who will be our major champions?

For twelve years men’s tennis has been dominated by four players – Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Murray. Grand slam championships and the world number one ranking have passed between them, but in a week all four players will be over thirty years of age. The question needs to be asked: Who will be our new champions?What does the future hold for the big four?

Such has been the dominance of the big four that since Marat Safin won the Australian Open in 2005 only one grand slam final has been played without at least one of them competing for the title. The one aberration came at 2014’s US Open and since then normal service has resumed. With all of the big four soon to be in their thirties can normal service be maintained?

The emergence of Stan Wawrinka as a multiple slam champion and the renaissance of Roger Federer suggests that the age profile for champion tennis players is changing. For the whole period of the eighties, nineties and noughties – 120 slams – only seven went to a champion aged thirty or above. In our current decade – 29 slams – four have been won by a champion over thirty already.

Tennis changes and adapts, from the beginning of the open era (1968) till the beginning of the eighties twelve slams were won by men over thirty. This included a calendar year clean sweep of all the slams by a certain Rod Laver – a task never matched by any man of any age. Ken Rosewall won four slams during this period and is still the oldest man to win a slam in the open era when winning the Australian Open at 37 years 2 months 1 day.

Following this period came the eighties where Jimmy Connors was the only man to win a slam aged over thirty, in fact, he did it twice, winning the US Open in 1982 and 1983. This decade was synonymous with the power of youth – first Wilander, then Becker and finally Chang won slams as seventeen-year-olds. Wilander, Becker and Edberg would win more slams as teenagers through the decade.

Pete Sampras won the US Open in 1990 as a nineteen-year-old, but no other teenager would win a slam until Rafael Nadal won the French Open in 2005. Nadal remains the last male teenager to triumph at one of tennis’ major championships. His victory heralded the beginning of the big four, he joined Federer at the top of the game and they were soon joined by Djokovic and Murray at the business end of most tournaments.

We are now twelve years down the line and during that period Federer and Nadal have won 14 majors each; Djokovic has won 12, Murray and Wawrinka 3 and one each for Juan Martin Del Potro and Marin Cilic. Just as Murray and Djokovic are close in age, so are Del Potro and Cilic, next September they will also turn 30. No other man has won a title since Safin in 2005.

If numbers are to be believed then the dominant forces in men’s tennis are all on the wane. Since the beginning of the open era twelve per cent of major championships have been won by men over thirty – one every two years.

Either younger players need to arrive to knock the top players off their perch or the game stands to be dominated by players past their natural physical peak.

Roger Federer has just announced he is to skip the clay season to be better rested and prepared for the grass and hardcourt seasons. At 35 (soon to be 36) Federer is already the senior citizen of the game, but his hunger for victories and supreme talent allow him the possibility of further cementing himself as the greatest of all time.

Missing the entire clay season allows him to extend his career and position himself to win tournaments like Wimbledon that suit his style. Federer has already won a major this year and could add more to his tally in the future,

Ken Rosewall’s record as the oldest champion could be in serious jeopardy if Roger can maintain his current level.

Rafael Nadal is also enjoying a rejuvenation of his career, like Federer he is allowing planned scheduling to reduce the wear and tear on his body, this allows him to lengthen his career and challenge for more titles. Nadal has also added Carlos Moya to his coaching team. Moya’s impact seems to be in making Nadal attempt to hit more winners, rather than play his naturally defensive game that will have a larger toll on his body.

Novak Djokovic is the last of them big four to reach thirty (though only a week after Murray). His ending to 2016 and the beginning of 2017 seem to suggest a career in decline, he has dismissed all of his coaching staff and intends to work alone until he finds the right candidate.  No period of dominance can last forever but Djokovic is demonstrating both physical and psychological frailty, as Murray usurps his position.

Andy Murray came to the party last, his place in the big four seemed questionable beyond his ability to make it to the finals and win masters series events. Losing to the other members of the big four in major finals seemed to blight his career and crush him psychologically. To overcome this he thought outside the box and he began the fashion of the super coach by hiring Ivan Lendl. Lendl gave Murray the final push he needed and in two stints has returned 3 slams, two Olympic gold medals, most recently the world number one ranking, and we are still counting. In spite of all of this 2017 has been far from a golden year and has not yet kicked into gear. Murray is well aware his career may well be winding down but hopes to remain at his current level for two to three more years. At the moment this does not seem unattainable.

The top five places in the ATP rankings are men over thirty or days within being thirty (Djokovic) and all are previous slam winners – Murray, Djokovic, Wawrinka, Nadal and Federer. The other active slam winners Del Potro and Cilic are ranked 34 and 8 respectively.

Chasing for supremacy are the next generation and slam finalists Milos Raonic and Kei Nishikori. Raonic is 26 and Nishikori is 27, a member of their cohort is the talented but underperforming Grigor Dmitrov who is twice a grand slam semi-finalist. The talent of these players is obvious but their potential to usurp the big four has been tested and consistently falls short.

If there is going to be a tennis revolution it will need to come from a younger generation and we are beginning to see who the contenders may be: Nick Kygrios and Alexander Zeverev are now in the world’s top 20, Dominic Thiem is currently ranked number 7. These players are 22,20 and 23 respectively and are now beginning to challenge and conquer the big four. If the old guard is in decline these players are the most likely to benefit and outshine them on the court.

Kyrgios has been garnering a name for himself with his demeanour and attitude but has all the tools to become a major force within the game. In 2017 he has already beaten Djokovic twice and lost to Federer in three sets – a game in which all sets went to a tie-break. With the right focus, the 22-year-old Australian could become a real force and win multiple slams.

The German Alexander Zeverev is only 20 but is beginning to go deep into tournaments. In his short career, he has claimed victories over Federer, Wawrinka and Cilic. His rise in the rankings makes him the youngest person to reach the ATP top 20 since Djokovic in 2006.

Dominc Thiem is the 23-year-old Austrian that may take Nadal’s title as the king of clay. Thiem has already reached the semi-final and is making considerable progress on the brick dust in 2017. Thiem recently lost to Nadal in the Barcelona final but could find his luck changing over five sets at Roland Garros. As the world number 7 Thiem is showing the consistency needed to be a slam champion and recently claimed his first victory over a world number 1 when he beat Andy Murray at Barcelona on his way to the final.

History and statistics suggest that the era of the big four is over. Stan Wawrinka has already crashed the party and recently it has become more of a big five. Wawrinka took the game to the leading players and began to hit through them and it has won him three slams and counting.

The ATP top 20 still has players that are over thirty have yet to win a slam but most definitely have the potential – Monfils, Berdych and Tsonga. If we believe that the big four can continue to win majors then so do these perennial contenders.

Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Murray have dominated for twelve years but never without being challenged. Now that age is creeping up on them the challenges might become more common. What it does mean is that as fans of tennis we can look forward to expecting the unexpected as either the old guard holds strong against expectation, or it is thrown down by the power of youth and new champions rise in their place.