UN report: how many people will there be in the world in 2050. China, surpassed by India

The world population will reach around 9,8 billion people by 2050, according to recent UN estimates. Moreover, India’s population will exceed China’s until 2024.

At the moment there are 7,6 billion people in the world, compared to 7,4 billion in 2015. The largest population clusters are found in the poorest countries.

“With an increase of around 83 million people per year, the trend regarding population development is expected to increase, even if we assume that the fertility level will continue to decline”, the aforementioned document states.

Considering this rate, it is estimated that the world population will reach 8,6 billion people in 2030, while 2050 will see 9,8 billion people and over 11,2 billion people in 2100.

The increase will most likely be lead by the world’s 47 least developed countries, where the fertility rate is of approximately 4,3 births per woman and whose population will hit 1,9 billion until 2050.

The number of people aged 60 or more, double by 2050

Moreover, the population of 26 African countries is expected to at least double by 2050. According to the UN document, the fertility rate decreased in almost all parts of the world, from 5,1 births/woman between 2000 and 2005 to 4,7 births/woman between 2010 and 2015. By contrast, in Europe, the fertility rate was of 1,6 births/woman and between 2010 and 2015, it reached 1,4 births/woman.

In this context, the immediate effect is the ageing of the population. Therefore, the number of people aged 60 or more is expected to at least double by 2050 and triple by 2100, reaching 3,1 billion people from the 962 million at the moment. Africa will also undergo a rapid population ageing, with the percentage of those aged 60 or more estimated to go up from 5% in 2017 to 9% in 2050.

At the same time, the aforementioned report states that India’s population, which at the moment has 1,3 billion people and is the world’s second largest, will surpass China’s (1,4 billion at present) until 2024. Moreover, until 2050, the world’s third largest population will be Nigeria, currently the seventh.

Ageing population, felt in the EU countries as well

According to Eurostat data, in early 2015, in the EU-28 there were 508,5 million residents. Out of these, the people aged 0-19 years old represented 20,9% of the total, while active aged people (20-64 years old) were two fifths (60,2% of the total), with the rest of around 18,9% of the population being the elderly (aged at least 65).

The European Statistics Office further states that the majority of EU regions also experienced a progressive increase of the number of elderly people, as a result of significant and continuous increase of life expectancy and the generation born in the ”baby boom” after the end of World War II.

The elderly are a particularly high percentage of the population in several rural and distant regions in Greece, Spain, France and Portugal, as well as in several regions in eastern Germany.

Birth rate, highest in Ireland

At the same time, EU women have fewer children, thus contributing to a slower natural demographic increase.

In 2014, the natality rate in EU-28 was of 10,1 births per 1,000 inhabitants. In the EU member countries, the birth rate peaked at 14,6 births per 1,000 inhabitants in Ireland and was also relatively high in France (12,4 births), United Kingdom (12,0 births) and Sweden (11,9 births).

At the lower end o the ranking, the natality rate was of 10,0 births per 1,000 inhabitants or lower in most of Eastern Europe (Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Poland and Romania), in southern Europe (Greece, Spain, Italy, Malta and Portugal), as well as Germany and Austria.