The British General Election: How close is it really?

The polls insist that there’s everything to play for – but can they be believed?

On April 18th, British Prime Minister Theresa May shocked the world when she called a snap General Election. Although she claimed it was to get a stronger hand for Brexit, most political commentators took the view that a strong lead in the polls had given May the desire to cement her majority. If so, she may well be regretting that decision; the Conservatives’ lead on Labour has been eroding throughout the election. If the polls are to be believed, we’re still looking at a large Conservative majority, but nobody’s expecting on the scale of a 150-seat-lead anymore.

How Close Is It Really?

Back when Theresa May first called the General Election, a Conservative landslide seemed guaranteed. According to the Daily Telegraph’s poll tracker, this was how the vote was divided between the two main parties:

• Conservatives: 42.6%
• Labour: 26.8%

Some early polls even had the Conservatives at literally double the vote share of Labour. In those early days of the election, it wasn’t uncommon to see predictions that Labour could see the worst result since the 1930s. The latest polls, though, show a very different situation:

• Conservatives: 44.2%
• Labour: 35.8%

We’re still looking at a very comfortable Conservative majority, but the direction of travel is pretty clear; Labour is gaining ground. There’s only a week to go before voters head to the only poll that really matters, but it’s worth taking the time to ask; how close is this election really?

The Media Focus Needs To Be Questioned

First of all, it’s worth noting that – even given this dramatic change in the polls – nobody’s predicting a Labour victory. In fact, current polling would see Theresa May achieve her stated objective – the Conservative share of the vote in 2015 was only 36.9%, against Labour’s 30.4%.In spite of that, though, the media are quite enjoying spinning a story of the Conservatives in real trouble against a resurgent Labour Party.

There’s a simple reason for this; it’s a more interesting narrative. A closely-fought election will command attention from readers. A surefire win for the Conservatives won’t.

In this sense, it’s in the interests of both parties to support that narrative. For the Conservatives, the real risk behind calling this snap election was that their voters would consider it a ‘done deal,’ and not even bother to turn up. For Labour, the risk was that their voters would believe they were already defeated, and wouldn’t see the point. The tighter the election is, the more both parties can encourage their voters to cast their ballots on the day.

The big problem with the polls, of course, is that they assume uniform voting patterns across the country. And that just doesn’t happen. In reality, the ‘First Past the Post’ voting system guarantees that the majority of constituencies are what are called ‘safe seats’ – you can say for certain who’s going to win in them. Four weeks ahead of the 2015 General Election, the Electoral Reform Society was able to predict results in 364 seats across the country. That’s why both parties can presume a certain degree of support, and will focus their resources on what are called marginal constituencies. This isn’t really reflected in the national polls.

What’s Changing The Polls So Much?

The polls are being consistently over-hyped; they don’t show the Conservatives in danger of being beaten by Labour anytime soon. But they do show that something’s gone badly wrong for Theresa May, and her MPs are going to be watching them with fury and concern.

There are really two core problems. The first is that the Conservatives have launched a pretty uninspired campaign focused purely on Theresa May. Polling had consistently shown that Theresa May’s brand is more popular than the Conservatives’, so the party has focused its message on its leader. Check out the Conservative Manifesto, for example, and you never read about the Conservative Party; you read about Theresa May’s Conservative Party. The posters have all stressed leadership, with May’s name shouted from the rooftops, and the Conservative Party mentioned in hushed tones.

The main issue with this approach is that Theresa May is largely untested on the campaign trail. She became Prime Minister by default, when her opponents for leadership of the Conservative Party dropped out. She actually doesn’t have any experience campaigning in this way, and that’s shown. Although May performed well against Jeremy Paxman last night, her Andrew Neil interview last week was an absolute car-crash. Interactions with voters have been awkward and uncomfortable, and the election started with May generally hunkering down in a risk-free campaign that led to derision. At one point, the Conservatives went so far as to conduct an event in a building in the middle of a forest in Scotland, where reception was poor so it couldn’t be live-tweeted by reporters. They bussed in activists instead of the general public, and booked the event as a children’s party so the locals didn’t even know it was happening!

Meanwhile, a focus on leadership has exposed another issue; the Conservatives have underestimated Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the Labour Party. Although Corbyn’s leadership skills are definitely questionable, he’s good at one thing; campaigning. Where May is untested, Corbyn is used to being on the campaign trail, and he’s genuinely good at interacting with voters. He’s grown more confident and assured in interviews, and – however awkward some of his historic views may be – he’s able to handle aggressive questions a lot better than May. The Conservative campaign has essentially shone the spotlight on Corbyn, and allowed him to play to his strengths.

The second reason the polls have changed so much? The Conservative Manifesto. To say that manifesto was a disaster is an understatement; it was completely uncosted, with key details not matching up. All Theresa May could say was, “Trust me.” Meanwhile, the social care proposals, in particular, were poorly thought-through; the Conservatives were actually “clarifying” (read “rebooting”) them within just four days of publishing the Manifesto. It was unprecedented; a party actually ditching their Manifesto before they’ve even won the election. That blunder seems to have done real damage to Theresa May’s reputation for “strong and stable” leadership – a major problem, given the whole campaign has stressed that message so much.

Why Does This Matter?

“If I was sitting in Brussels and I was looking at you as the person I had to negotiate with, I’d think ‘she’s a blowhard who collapses at the first sign of gunfire’.”

Jeremy Paxman had a point, however, little Theresa May will have liked to admit it.

The truth is, this General Election is being fought as the precursor to possibly the most important negotiations in British history. The United Kingdom is leaving the European Union, and the new Government will launch negotiations within just 11 days of victory at the polls. Right now, you can absolutely guarantee that the EU is carefully watching the campaign. They’ll be identifying strengths and weaknesses, and this campaign has exposed all of May’s weaknesses.

Firstly, the EU has seen that Theresa May hasn’t managed to unite the country behind her. In fact, her entire campaign has essentially squandered a position of strength, and that suggests poor judgment. It hints that she misreads the British public, and will have trouble selling her own positions to the country as a whole. That’s useful to know.

Secondly, unlike Margaret Thatcher, this lady is for turning. The EU can now be confident that Theresa May won’t always think things through, and can be backed into a corner. The U-turn on social care proved that.

Thirdly, checking that Manifesto, you’ll see one of the core problems is that May doesn’t like to give the British public details. What will be the cap on social care? Unknown. At what limit will pensioners lose their Winter Fuel Payments? Unknown. What will the Government’s negotiation position be on Brexit? For all the rhetoric and slogans – unknown. May prefers to keep her cards close to her chest, and the EU’s already responding by insisting on going public about everything. Make no mistake; the EU has chosen transparency as a negotiating tactic, in deliberate response to an already-apparent weakness in Theresa May.

This is one of the strangest General Elections in British history. We’re seeing the Conservatives squander a massive lead due to poor strategy, and in doing so they’re exposing their every weakness. The outcome may not be in doubt, but the narrowing gap between Labour and the Conservatives is still important – when you cast eyes beyond the election, to the negotiations ahead.