“Not good enough”

Is the government following a highly risky tactic or May is bluffing when saying than “no deal is better than a bad deal”?

The UK officially is on its way out of the European Union. Brexit poker game has only just started, but there is a lot more to come up. Is the government following a highly risky tactic or May is bluffing when saying than “no deal is better than a bad deal “?

Brexit Deal

“I’m pretty sure, I am not 100% sure, you can never be, it’s a negotiation”, said Brexit Secretary, David Davis, who began negotiations with the EU over the UK’s departure, @ BBC.

Maybe May is holding all the cards on Brexit –including jokers. But what does that mean? May on Thursday night, claimed that there will be a fair attempt – “a fair and serious offer” to safeguard the rights of 3.5 million EU citizens in the UK and 1.2 million Britons in the EU.

”I want to reassure all those EU citizens who are in the UK, who have made their lives and homes in the UK, that no one will have to leave. We won’t be seeing families split apart,“  May said.

Either you are a Bremainer or a Brexitter, Brexit goes to prove that you can vote for whatever you are a firm believer, but putting things into practice is a totally different matter.

Putting Brexit into practice is going to be a complex process. And also will be full of contradictions, bearing in mind that the approval of more than 30 national and regional parliaments across Europe, is needed.

The UK may want free trade, but not free EU immigration, as many PM from both Conservative and Labour parties have made clear that control over immigration from the EU is a crucial point.

Brexit supporters, wanted Britain to take back full control of its borders and reduce the number of people coming here to live and work.

On the other hand, EU has declared that is not prepared to compromise in any way on this. As Angela Merkel said  “full” access to the single market will not be possible without “full” freedom of labour”.

Some support that a  major crisis is around the corner. David Cameron, prior to the referendum, predicted an immediate economic crisis if the UK voted to leave. A rapidly shrinking economy, rising prices, house prices would fall, falling wages and rising unemployment will start to kick in the near future.

Statistically speaking, inflation has risen – to 2.6% in April – its highest rate for three and a half years, but unemployment has continued to fall, to stand at an 11 year low of 4.8%.

Others hold the view that Brexit means a stronger Britain, that the United Kingdom will become more productive.

EU Leaders Reactions To May”s Citizen Offer

Mr Tusk, President of the European Council, ” claimed  Brexit could  be reversed, “You may say I’m a dreamer but I’m not the only one”, supporting that ”the EU was built on dreams that seemed impossible to achieve.”

As for rights of EU nationals in the UK, said : “If we compare – it is just the first impression – but if we compare the current level of citizens’ rights to what we have heard from the British prime minister, it is obvious this is about reducing the citizens’ rights of the EU nationals in the UK. And our role in these negotiations is to reduce this risk.”

European Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker described the offer as ”a first step, but not sufficient“.

European Parliament’s chief Brexit negotiator, Guy Verhofstadt:  “Theresa May”s offer does not fully guarantee the rights of EU citizens living in the UK“, adding: ”Hopefully the UK position paper, expected on Monday, will deliver what we are looking for.“

Dutch Prime Minister, Mark Rutte claimed that ”are thousands of questions to ask“

Angela Merkel:”a good start“ but added “there are  many, many other issues”

London Mayor Sadiq Khan said,  ”does not come close to fully guaranteeing the rights of EU nationals living in the UK“. 

Belgian Prime Minister, Charles Michel described it as “a particularly vague proposal“.

Tim Farron,  pro-EU outgoing Liberal Democrat leader: “These proposals are frankly too little too late, and leave millions of people still facing unanswered questions over their futures here. It is simply not good enough.”

Keir Starmer, the opposition Labour party’s shadow Brexit secretary: “We believe there must be a clear commitment that there will be no change to the status of EU nationals in the U.K. This is not only the right thing to do, but it will also help deliver a reciprocal agreement for the 1.2 million U.K. nationals living in the EU.”

 Austrian Chancellor Christian Kern: “Many details are left open. A lot of European citizens are concerned and not covered by May’s proposal. There is a long, long way to go for negotiations.”

Both sides much to preserve and much to lose

As regards of financial services,  St Albans MP, Anne Main,  has published a report, as per  5,500 UK companies use “passporting“ to gain access to sell their financial products elsewhere in the EU. But over 8,000 companies from elsewhere in the EU themselves use passporting to have access to the City of London and UK financial markets.

UK & EU KEY negotiators

First and foremost, Theresa May, as prime minister, the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, French president Emmanuel Macron and the other leaders of EU.

Davis Davis, Conservative MP and Leave campaigner, Brexit secretary

Michel Barnier, European Commission Chief Brexit Negotiator

Didier Seeuws, Council Special Taskforce Chief  Negotiator

Guy Verhofstadt, European Parliament chief negotiator on Brexit

Tim Barrow, British ambassador to the EU

Boris Johnson, Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs

Liam Fox, Secretary of State for International Trade

Robin Walker, Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Department for Exiting the European Union

Oliver Robbins, CBE, Permanent Secretary

Sarah Healey, General Director

Antony Phillipson, Director of Trade and Partnerships

Catherine Webb, Director of Market Access and Budget

What”s Next

In the meantime, EU citizens and families are still being left in the dark about their futures.

May that will present full details of the citizen’s rights plan on Monday 26th June, also said those EU citizens who had lived in Britain for five years could stay for life, and those less would be allowed to stay until they reach the five-year threshold for “settled status”.

Calling for a smart Brexit

Between a “hard” Brexit – if UK will refuse to accept a free movement of people even if meant leaving the single market and a “soft” Brexit , as Norway, which is a member of the single market and has accepted free movement of people,or Liechtenstein, which is in the European Economic Area, but not in the EU and  was granted special status 20 years ago( EEA agreement),  that let it limits the number of new residents for a period of four years, there should  be  a way for the two parts to reach  a smart Brexit.

It seems that  EU and UK will struggle to compromise and find benefits on both sides, reach a middle ground on immigration, free movement of workers and UK access to the single market.